Signal Track Record

Most scanners advertise their wins. This page publishes the whole record: what ConvexRadar ranked highest each day, and what those exact contracts did over the following 7 days — losers included.

It is generated automatically from retained scan snapshots. Nobody edits it, and no result is removed for being unflattering.

Flags graded6Every top-ranked contract with forward data. Nothing excluded.
Win rate33%Share that gained over 7 days.
Average return-9.1%Mean forward move of the flagged contract.
Coverage27d2026-08-03 to 2026-09-17

How each condition performed

Forward returns split by the conditions present when a contract was flagged. Samples under 20 are labelled thin because they are noise, not findings.

ConditionSampleWin rateAvg return
score 95+ thin520%-17.8%
V/OI 5x+ thin333%+1.2%
IV rank >30 thin333%-3.3%
V/OI <5x thin333%-19.3%
IV rank <=30 thin333%-14.8%
score 85-95 thin1100%+34.9%

Individual outcomes

Winners and losers, unfiltered.

ContractFlaggedEntryExitReturn
UBER P $762026-08-10$1.44$2.41+67.4%
XOM P $1602026-08-18$1.09$1.47+34.9%
SOFI C $182026-08-31$0.52$0.36-30.8%
NVDA P $2252026-09-02$4.70$3.88-17.4%
NVDA C $2302026-09-02$2.52$0.96-61.9%
UBER C $712026-09-09$1.68$0.90-46.4%

Method

Entry = option price on the snapshot day the contract was top-ranked. Exit = the same contract's price in the first retained snapshot at least 7 days later. Every flagged contract is graded, winners and losers. Chain prices, not fills — slippage and spread are not modelled. This measures whether the ranking was informative, not trading profit.

Limits worth knowing

Not investment advice

ConvexRadar is research software. Nothing here is financial, tax, legal, or investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to trade any security. Options involve substantial risk including total loss of premium. You are responsible for your own decisions.

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